I sold all and put everything in cash, and took a two months break, and S&P500 was at 1517 on Sept.24th, now it's 1469. I didn't miss anything. Something to share for my future investment:
- Focus on the main idea. All my thoughts the last 12 months are correct, but I mistakenly changed from investing in precious metals to short the market, which burned me. I don't have patience to wait and want to make money quickly. Without patience, you can't be an investor or trader.
- The inflation will become stronger in the years to come, so hard assets like gold, silver, corn,wheat and oil are good places to save your hard earned money.
- Dollar will trade lower in years to come, to right the imbalance between US and the world, specially China.
- Chinese market will crash, sooner than most people thought.
- PM shares will be lower when market crashes, but perform relatively better than general market.
- And don't be a trader to short the market, be an investor. If I am a full time trader, then I think I can do it. But I'm not, so be real.
- Now, I'll wait some more. I don't think now is the time to invest, maybe a little PM shares, but other than that, wait for the market to correct some more before I jump in, this time, with long term investments.
- I think playing poker is a better idea for me, it's all skill, gut and luck, there is no cheating and inside information as in the stock market, there is no manipulation and false information to fool public while the investment firms (like the way they sold subprime mortgage) illegally (or legally?) engage dirty activities to make money for themselves.
- So if I want to gamble, I'll try poker. For my money, I'll do investment in the future.
For these who are still in the market and read this blog, best luck to you. I'll share my thought and idea may be once or twice a week, since now I changed to long term investment.
I am sorry I could not make it as a trader, I tried, if I could I would, but I can't!
4 comments:
Thanks for your post! It's great to have you back. I appreciate your honesty and transparency.
Since you left in September I've been mostly in cash as well. I have long term holdings in the following ETFs and I've purchased shares with in 1% of the 52 week lows: ITB, FXP, QID, and DUG. I think oil is going lower, China is going to reset and at some point the housing market will firm up. ITP and DUG are my long term plays. FXP and QID are short term plays but by short I'm looking at a few months.
That's what I'm focused on.
Again, welcome back!
David
Glad to have you back, and I enjoyed your posts in the past, I totally agree with you on long term investment, I like your post because I like PM and gold.
Welcome back and yes, "patience" is a word many of us overlook. Patience is a virtue, and investing requires patience. You have a knack for due dilligence and organizing that information into well informed statements for all to enjoy. It is this process that requires patience - and you have that. You see, it is due dillegence where our emotion is separated and removed from analytical process. It is our weakness to control our emotions that cloud our judgement(fear/greed) when we invest and trade. When one one masters both emotion (invest/trade) and analytical thought (research). It is then when we are in control and confidence and success are one.
I do not know many people that have mastered both -- it's a human flaw I suppose. But, we can practice and always improve ;-)
On behalf of your many bloggers, we welcome you back.
cheers
David from NH
David from NH, I agree 100% with your comments. In fact, constant trading makes our life miserable. We constantly read news and watch price movements. For some, trading gives the thrill men want. Let's balance emotion and analytical thought. Sometimes it has to hurt so much for us to make a change for the better.
Welcome back!
-ryan-
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