Higher low for markets

Last week, the market completed a higher low compared to January low in S&P500, Nasdaq, and GDX. If you check the chart of APPL and GOOG, they all made important low. As a result, I think the market is likely to resume its bounce, this time, it first need to test the recent high it could not break(SPY139), if pass that, we'll have a decent bounce(to SPY 145).

Today, even with AIG's news the market holds up pretty good so far.

Recent actions and reason:

1. Added GDX again around 50 last week. This is not well timed action. I thought the PM market would hold well even in the market sell off, not true. People sell PM to cover their losses. After that, it made low of 147 and now back to 148. I expect GDX to do really well if market indeed make a decent bounce.
2. I sold QLD at 72.9, and after that it made intraday low of 66.5 again. I didn't add since I didn't know if market would test Jan. low. Now it is 71.
3. I added AAPL at 124.4 last week, this is the same amount I used to purchase QLD, small position. I think AAPL has the potential to make a sigificant bounce if market bounces. 150 to 160 range is not out of question if SPY bounces to 145. And the downside risk is low since AAPL is such a darling in Wall Street, and it comes down from 200 at the end of Dec. 2007. Way oversold.
4. Added ORCL since it's the best and safest tech play right now, it's a solid position, risk is low, reward is high. As long as market bounces, ORCL should out perform market.
5. Still hold DBA,DBC and NLR. DBA made great run recently, and it likely to continue this record breaking uptrend in the near term. Wheat is in a panic rally mode and it may well triggers soybean and corn to follow it. GS forecast Wheat to increase 50% in 2008. This is the start of another parabolic move! Risk is high, reward is even higher.

Plan:

1. Pretty much hold these positions and lessen up when they make a significant move to the up side.
2. Downside protection should not be there since all these except DBA are formed a nice base. Need to protect the gain in DBA.