Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Market looks to test the recent low

The bounce is too shallow, I thought it had more room to go, and I didn't follow my own advice to sell QLD when S&P near 1400, I could sell QLD at 78. Yesterday I sold QLD at 72.9,I bought it at 66.5 a few weeks back. Still keep GDX, DBA,DBC and NLR.
  1. I think the market may test the recent low or around that low. It's intertesting to see if S&P can hold 1270 and Nasdaq can hold 2200.
  2. So if the market can hold these level or bounce back from today's level, I may consider to play the small QLD position again.
  3. On the long term view, Fed's aggressive cuts will eventually force ECB and BOE to follow, and it will trigger global inflation in the next 5 years, and this will be great news for gold and commodities in general. So long term I still like DBA, GDX, GLD.
  4. If Fed and other central banks successfully avoid recession and put the economy back on track, that will be great news for commodities.
  5. If indeed we head into recession, then GLD will do well, but GDX and DBA, DBC won't do too great. NLR is a long term play, like in 10 years, nuclear will be one of the major source of global energy.

Trading plan:

  1. If market indeed test low and then bounce back, then will use the dip to add GDX, DBA and QLD.
  2. If the market just bounce back from today's level, then I'll trim GDX and DBA if they go higher with the market.
  3. Today market's reversal (low, high and then sharply lower) is bearish. On the other hand, the market is back to oversold again, let's see if it can consolidate and then have another strong rally like the one on Jan.23rd.

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