Weekly review(GLD,GDX,DGP,ABK,ORCL,AAPL,DBA,DBC,SLV)

For the week, market dropped again and touched a new yearly low. The bounce didn't come. Dow, Nasdaq and S&P500 all had a new close low. The oversold market gets more oversold!

Considering the gain in gold recently, I decided to move to cash, leave small positions in GLD, NLR, ORCL, ABK and AAPL.

Actions:

1. Sold GDX for some decent gain. I think if market tanks, GDX will follow, even GLD will be sold to cover losses by funds.
2. Sold DGP, I thought use DGP to play gold, but since I sense there is a danger that the market will sell off, I decided to take a tiny gain in DGP and raise cash.
3. Added GLD. I think will keep this one, and add GLD on the way down. Like I said before, in this bear environment, I think GLD will outperform GDX. And I'll use DGP as well.
4. ORCL. I think if the bounce doesn't come, maybe this one is too early.
5. AAPL. Good value, again hard to profit in this bear market. Push feature will eventually put RIMM into a bad position. AAPL will do well in the long term, if economy is not tanking. Very small position.
6. ABK. This was a mistake, even for small position. I had chance to sell at 12 after get in in the low 11, I didn't. Then I got second chance to sell at 11.8, and I didn't. Today it reached low of 6.5. Strangely enough, it closed at 4:00Pm at $7.3 and then 4:06PM at $9.5, up 28%. I think the banks and ABK were designing a smart plan to rescue: 1.5B at $6.75(They get in at $6.75 for $1.25B raised for ABK), and then use some funds to support the stock price., who can push the stock from $7.3 to $9.5 in 6 minutes??!!
7. NLR. This one was a mistake too. Now I'll leave it as a long term energy play. But if it recovers most of my losses quickly, then I may sell it. Again this proves that good idea doesn't translate into profit, you have to watch market action, fundamental and technical analysis won't do it!
8. Market action has to confirm your analysis, it's not the other way around.

Next:

1. If there is another capitulation in the stock market, like the one in January, then I'll add again. I think it's likely we'll get one, pull down PM and commodities as well. Then it's time to add.
2. Before that, I'll wait it out.
3. Add mainly GLD, in addition, use SLV and DGP to support the PM build. DBA and DBC are candidates as well.
4. For gold, $940 area is a good target, if we get there.
5. Sell ABK, ORCL, AAPL if market rallies. And only play speculative positions in small amount, to reduce the losses.
6. Dollar is in a very oversold area, there is a chance that it will bounce hard against euro, maybe around the time Fed cuts again, specially if it rallies against a Fed cut, that will be a powerful turning point.
7. And I think the bounce in dollar will be short lived, maybe 10% in a few months, after that, we should see it's going down again.
8. Still think gold will touch $1250 this year, now the question is, will it go to $900-$940 first? Today it's around $970.