Thursday, January 29, 2009

One day wrong

  1. If I closed the long yesterday(market up 3%) and started short yesterday, I will be in heaven now.
  2. After today's 3% drop, my SRS is still down (sold at 6.1, now need 7.6 to buy back) and SPY and IWm puts are close to be even.
  3. Added SRS at 52.35 today, it closed at 55.7, so this one is good. Could buy today at 50.1, didn't put the trigger. Remember, for SRS to go down 18% in a day (yesterday's low was 48.1, and I watched for a while and didn't put the trigger. That's the time to be wild and brave. Should at least buy 100 shares; or even try the 55 puts at 4.1, now almost doubled to 8. I was thinking sell 45 puts for 4.4 and buy 55 calls yesterday, that could be a great move, can close the puts and calls.
  4. What's more, even today when SRS was down hard, from 52 back to 50, I can get the calls (55) at 4.9, and now it's 8. That's how powerful the day trade is.
  5. Now, let me summarize what's right for the future trades:
  6. For leveraged, like SRS, should not hold for too long, take profit when you have one, specially if there is a shot up like 10%. Today should not count since it's recovering from yesterday's 18% drop.
  7. For options, I should choose IYR and IYF, around 1K each, close to 1 or 0.9. For Fed. I think still got three weeks left. Don't try double ETFs.
  8. Think to close 1 MOS puts in IRA and bet March puts? 1/3 now and 1/3 later?
  9. Don't trust xTrends too much, and add gradually, in case I am wrong.
  10. Looks like the Obama's package won't do anything, and it could be delayed by GOP. I think they need a market tanking as a cover to push it through.
  11. When market hits 600, then it's time to do the 3x inverse ETFs puts, can get 100 points in one day, since market can rally 12% and the 3x financial can rally 25%, make it 75% on the down side too. Specially if it's close to the OEX, will be a dream.
  12. IYR and IYF March puts maybe a better idea.
  13. I don't think sol and attila are right this time either, they may get 700 in Feb, but not the 600 or 500. That will come later this year, like in Sept/Oct. I think we may hit low in Feb/March, then bounce; then crash again. Use it well.
  14. SRS will be my main trade tool. IYF and IYR options.
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