Changes

I think agriculture is the next big thing, and it still has a few years left in its run. However, recent price action on DBA is not as good as I hoped, and my positions in POT, MOS did better than I hoped. Therefore, recently (mainly today), I reduced DBA and DAG, and added MOO and POT. Now MOO is my new number 1 position. MOO has following main holdings: POT, MOS, DE, ADM and MON. I think all these fertilizer companies, agriculture equipments and service companies will do better than DBA in the coming years if food crisis is to continue, even just keep the price as its current level, these companies will do better.
Just early this year, potash price imported to China is tripled in less than 15 months. I think POT, which controls 22% of world potash reserve, will have great earning power moving forward. So I'll play and trade according to these new information. Even technicals indicate POT may break to new highs soon.
It's easy for POT to double in a year or two, but it's difficult for DBA, even DAG to double(2x DBA). Considering the public outcry on food prices. So I'll keep this as future guidance, usually, companies are better leveraged than the underline commodities.
MOO:
MOO tracks the DAX Agribusiness Index. 0.65% expense ratio. MOO holds 40 companies that trade on 13 exchanges worldwide. Companies must be worth at least $150 million to be included in the ETF, reports Index Universe Staff. The U.S. makes up the most of MOO at 55% followed by Canada at 9.3%. Holdings in the ETF include agriculture chemicals at 34%, agriproduct operations at 33.5%, agriculture equipment at 24.3%, livestock operations at 5.6% and ethanol/biodiesel at 2.3%.
Top 10 holdings of MOO as of 3/31/2008: %

Syngenta Ag		8.2
Monsanto Co.		7.91
Potash Corp. Of Saskatchewan Inc.		7.7
Deere & Co.		7.69
The Mosaic Co.		7.45
Wilmar Intl Ltd.		5.25
Komatsu Ltd.		4.94
IOI Corp. BHD		4.79
Yara International ASA		4.6
CNH Global NV		4.49

Positions and changes

1. I sold YHOO last Thursday, ahead of the rise on Friday, and I was kicking myself on Friday, with YHOO up more than 6%. And today with YHOO down 16% now, I feel lucky!
2. I added POT and MOS on Thursday and Friday. I think long term, these companies are better leveraged than DBA; and similarly, GDX is better leveraged than GLD. But with oil cost high, it will put pressure on gold companies. So my focus will be on agriculture and fertilizer companies.
3. My main position is DBA, followed by POT and DAG. I also got enough GDX.
4. I will add these on weakness, and take profit on sharp rise.

Patient

I don't have enough patience. I added commodities too early this time, after I exited almost all of them in March. As a result, I cut almost all PM related positions at a loss and now only hold agriculture related positions mainly in DBA. I also keep GDX since it's down too much and I think it's a value play.

If I wait until today, then I can add aggressively now in DBA, great entry is the key!

Now I will only add a small position each time, since I don't have enough cash and current positions are entered at higher prices.

I still think DBA is not done, but what do I know? I underestimated the power of the dollar rally.

Trim positions

Today I sold GLD, DGP,DBP at small losses. I should do this yesterday, then some of them were pretty much even. Main positions are DBA,DAG and GDX. Even though long term I love gold, but short term, I'm not sure. So I raised cash today.

If indeed there is a deep correction, I will add more.

Tough decision

Seems like both precious metals and agriculture ETFs are under pressure, looks like the Fed decision will trigger another round of selloff. It's a tough decision to keep big position in DBA and DBP, I may need to trim them at losses before the Fed's meeting.
On the other hand, seems like lot of people advise to sell PM and DBA, which in itself is a bullish sign for PM and DBA.
Long term trend, I think DBA and gold will outperform market, short term another 5-10% correction is likely. My pick in GDX was bad, my original thinking is right, pure gold and silver will outperform GDX.
Last few days, gold is very weak, ever small gain were sold off at the end of the day or after hour.
Always keep enough cash.

Rice Panic

I read an article about rice panic, and I checked stocks like MOS and POT, and the new IPO in IPI next week, looks like we'll have a food crisis this year, and DBA is the way to safely invest. So yesterday I added DBA and DAG(double ETN on DBA).

1. People buy POT and MOS, due to the fact they think there is a food shortage in the world, and it could not be solved anytime soon.
2. Similarly, when gold started to turn in 2001, gold stocks went up more than gold. Now I think the food price, which started to turn in 2006, still have a long way to go. It's unlikely the bull in food will end anytime soon.
3. There will have corrections along the way, but it's worth the patience.
4. I think POT and MOS ran up too fast recently, due to the fact that China agreed to triple the price for potash, the previous hike is 15 months ago.
5. So if you're aggressive, buy POT and MOS on dip, otherwise, you can safely buy DBA and DAG.
6. Agriculture is the new game, and the food inflation is the hardest to correct, it's still in early stage.

Gold may head higher

After watching gold and other commodities recently, today I added GDX, DBA, DBP and a speculative play in PAL. I also added YHOO, think the deal may near and it's easily a $35-$40 stock if MSFT is determined to have it.

1. Fundamentally, gold and commodities are very good long term, thanks to inflation and the weakened U.S. dollar. It's a long term trend, may still have a few years, even a decade left, before it runs out of gas.
2. Technically, two things happened in gold, today is the first time GLD's MACD clearly turned to positive, signal that the correction may be over; another, this is the first time GDX clearly outperform GLD recently, indicates people think the gold companies will do far better than gold, that's a leading indicator that gold will go higher.
3. And, since the March sell off in gold, today is first time gold and general market are both up big. So I think the funds allocated for PM are back.
4. I added DBA, that's a play on food crisis. I think the run in DBA is not over.
5. I added DBP. So I cover both gold and silver.
6. PAL is a palladium play. Palladium is in the PGM group with platinum, has unique properties, over half of palladium is used in catalytic converters in all the new cars today to reduce pollution. PAL is one of two palladium play in U.S., another being SWC. I think it's like URZ that I played last year, can easily doubled or tripled within a year, and as easily halved in a year. But I think the odds is going higher, since it's more rare than gold and it has great industry application, palladium shall be worth more than gold, eventually.
7. I think MSFT will pay at least $35 to get YHOO. So it's another speculative buy. Next week's earning may play out to speedy up the process.