July 1st is an important day for XLF

I think tomorrow will be important day for XLF. If it can bounce, it has to be tomorrow. Today, last day of June, mutual funds were still selling financials and buying the hot ag and coal companies. If financials have any chance to bounce, tomorrow it has to show it. Otherwise, I think my thought that it will bounce maybe wrong.

But I'll give it time to work out.

For example, today LEH was down 10%, since no funds wanted to show LEH as their holdings as the end of June. But tomorrow, they'll buy it back, since they have another three months before they report their holdings. Similarly, XLF and UYG should at least have a minimum bounce tomorrow. If it's sold again towards end, then I really question it has any strength left in it.

Be careful

1. Need to be careful, UYG bounce is not a done deal, it can certainly go lower before it bounces. Even though UYG has the history of bounce back to 50 EMA, doesn't mean it can't go lower at current level, 27.92 is the 50 EMA.


2. I need slow down the speed of adding UYG. Cash is a good thing in this market. If there is another sharp down in UYG, will average down again. Unless it's a huge down move like March and January, then I may add all the cash I prepared for UYG.


3. GLD and GDX looks good now. While I am not sure about oil and agriculture, and coal.


4. POT and MOS had a meaningful pull back, but I didn't add, since I was too greedy and think I could catch it lower.


5. Tomorrow there is the USDA report on grains, and several reports this week, ahead of the holiday. So it's better to not make new mistakes than to use all the cash.

Try to catch a bounce

1. I added UYG at the close to average down.
2. Since market is down over 3% and more than 95% of S&P500 stocks are down, I think that's a good enough indicator for me to bet on a bounce.
3. Also added XLF and MF during the day.
4. Today my GDX had a 5% bounce, at least balanced my portfolio.
5. Now I am still have over 50% in cash and then have UYG as the main position, plus GDX, MF and XLF.
6. Tomorrow if it stays down, it will close lower at the close, since people don't want to add ahead of weekend in a down market.
7. On the other hand, an open slightly lower and then turn higher, and close sharply higher is a very bullish sign for the short term.
8. Unlike last year, which I played options, I don't need to worry against time this time. I think holding ETFs and stocks, you know they'll make a comeback, unless Israel attacks Iran, or something in that magnitude happens, I see a strong bounce near term.

Too early again!

1. I did great by selling POT,MOO,KOL,MOS,AGU,PCX. They are all done big from where I sold.
2. I sold DBA and DAG two days too early, today I could have additional 10% in DAG!
3. I bought UYG and MF two days too early, and yesterday I had 5% gain in UYG but didn't sell, today I had 5% loss right now. Talking about bad timing!
4. Short term, I think market is oversold and can be a decent bounce. I'll add UYG and use dollar average to see if I can catch the bounce.
5. Glad I have lot of cash now and even UYG I bought is not too bad, considering lot of people jumped in last week.
6. MF showed some strength finally in this tough market today, now Dow is off 260 points.
7. I think the market may close at the low, if that's the case, I may add more UYG.

Sold DBA, DAG. Bought UYG and MF

Finally I decided to sell DBA and DAG. Both for a decent profit. I'm waiting for DBA to pull back to add. And if they do pull back, I may choose MOO over DBA.

On the other hand, I think XLF is oversold and can have a short term bounce. So I added UYG and MF.

Today XLF had a new all time low, but bounced back, in a general negative market, I think short term bottom in XLF is in. So I added UYG as a proxy to play this theory.

1. I added MF again, but think will not add again. It's such a risky play and it may not play out, just like my LEH play several weeks ago.
2. POT and MOS are down today, I'll monitor them.
3. Tomorrow is Fed day, market may swing strongly after the announcement. A rally is likely, even though it maybe short lived.

Wait pullback in POT and MOS

I'll wait to add POT and MOS when the pullback is over. Target is 200-220 for POT and 130-140 for MOS.

Looking for a bounce in MF

Checked the weekly chart of MF, look for a bounce. Target is around 10-12.