Saturday, April 7, 2007

Week in Review

Market post solid gains last week, on light volume. Next week may be a volatile week due to two factors: The "good" job report last Friday and first week of earning reports for Q1. Let's see what happens.
  1. Nasdaq gained 2.1%, Dow 1.7% and S&P500 1.6% last week. All the indices again moved higher to close the Feb.27th gap. They are not all closed yet, but a complete close of the gap and a push higher, we can talk about new highs for the year and Dow.
  2. But if they fail, then they should retest the March 5th low at some point before we can say it's a bottom or another leg down.
  3. I still believe, eventually this year, the housing market will further decline to a point that the economy is in recession. But now we have strong job report to show the resilience of the economy, even though the job report is a lagging indicator.
  4. But short term, if earnings are good in general, we can talk about new highs.

What's next plan:

  1. I sold SDS , part of MZZ and QID so that I have some cash to play on the short side and long side.
  2. I added URZ and still think uranium is the best long term play, even though URZ is overbought, but with great momentum.
  3. I probably will add more URZ if there is a sharp correction, same as EMU and FRG. Other than these three, I won't add others in uranium.
  4. PM shares are solid, but SSRI is overbought and I'd like to see them lower before I buy.
  5. Will continue to cut shorts and puts if they go against me. Raise cash so I can play later.
  6. RIMM may push through 150. My bad decision to hold these puts. Let's see how market react to its "good" earning. It's not a bad idea to add puts after another round of shoot up after earning.
  7. Another area is biotech, IBB is not a bad choice. Recently, several biotech companies got FDA approval and the prices shot up like crazy, so if this is a trend, then IBB is the best and safest play.

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