The bounce

Today we had the bounce. Let's see if we have a retest to 1490 in S&P500 soon. I noticed it's not as strong as the previous bounce after a sell off, and again with lighter volume on the bounce and heavier volume on the sell off. This kind of distribution indicates people are more interested in selling(taking profit) than buying, which forecast the end of this bull run ahead. It's been like this for months, and it has to end somewhere.

1. Nice comment from hlgold, you're right about me out of sync with the market. I'll adjust, that's what I tried to do the last few weeks.
2. The main fuel of this market: credit and liquidity are slowly be surely exiting the market, S&P and Moody have to cut the ratings of the bond backed by subprime mortgage; SLM may not be bought after all; BX again showed us it has trouble to maintain its IPO price. These are indication of trouble ahead.
3. You can check the financials recent performance, you know one of the pillars of the bull market is not participating.
4. Now the strength is in Nasdaq and tech, and MOT warned yet again after market, and I have to think we'll see a big correction down the road, at least 10%, if not more.
5. But likely it will push higher (to draw public in) before the correction, maybe in July, maybe in Sept. So it's still time to be cautious.
6. From TA point of view, we have lower highs in S&P and last two attempts to break to new high failed, this is very bearish sign unless it can break it.
7. I'll wait to let the market to tell me what's next, and I'm positioned in short to exit them if there is a correction (take profit) or market break to all time high (cut losses yet again).
8. Dollar is not forecast great rally for the market, like I said many times before, falling dollar will drive up the interest rates (in order to attract foreign buyers), and this won't be good for the market.
9. And oil, and terror attack, and Iraq, there are lot of risks out there.